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Insurers placing too much emphasis on cat model PML numbers, not enough on uncertainty models

An article covering a presentation by Jacqueline Friedland, actuarial practice leader at KPMG's Canadian insurance practice, reviews the findings of a forthcoming study that suggests insurers are over-relying on catastrophe modeling. Friedland cites Karen Clark during a presentation on the study's findings.

COMMENT: Risk Modelers Take Flak

An editorial by Michael Loney responds to recent coverage of insurance modeling in the Sarasota Herald-Tribune and acknowledges the industry's over-reliance on models. He quotes Karen Clark expressing concerns over the oversold precision of model numbers.

Insurers’ Computer Models Deeply Flawed

An article, the second in a two-part series, continues exploring the Florida property insurance business. Karen Clark is quoted on catastrophe models' relation to accurate and precise loss estimates.

Florida Insurers Rely on Dubious Storm Model

An article, the first in a two-part series, reviews the redevelopment of hurricane and catastrophic risk undertaken by the insurance industry after Hurricane Katrina. Karen Clark is quoted on the useful, but limited nature of catastrophe models in a complex system.

Climate Change effect not clear cut: Clark

A report of Karen Clark’s presentation on Sept. 29 Reactions’ Risk & Capital Management conference in New York reviews her position that climate change affects the severity, though not frequency, of hurricanes making landfall in the US.

Measuring Up the Metrics

This opinion piece by Karen Clark argues inherent flaws in PMLs hampers effective catastrophe risk management and advocates for fixed event sets similar to Lloyd’s Realistic Disaster Scenarios.

The Acts of God Algorithm

This profile examines Karen Clark’s pivotal role as a pioneer, and continuing innovator, in catastrophe risk management.

Batten down the hatches?

In this contributed article, Karen Clark discusses hurricane forecasts for the 2010 season, and the limitations of models in accurately forecasting hurricane activity and insured losses.

Karen Clark & Co.'s Karen Clark, Davidson & Co.'s Drew Powell on Katrina's Impact

In this BestDay Audio podcast, Karen Clark discusses how Hurricane Katrina impacted catastrophe modeling and how insurers assess risk since the storm.

Opinion: Prisoners of Models of Our Own Design

In this opinion piece, Karen Clark discusses the increased use of catastrophe models by the insurance industry over the last 25 years. Ms. Clark discusses the need to find balance between utilizing the models as a valuable framework and being able to improve loss estimates utilizing other credible information.


Cat Modeler’s Review Highlights Necessity To Integrate Models Throughout Operations

Karen Clark & Company Senior Vice President John Tierney discusses the need for insurers to do a better job of integrating the catastrophe modeling process into their operations.

Where Are They Now?

In this profile of Karen Clark, a former Business Insurance Women to Watch honoree, Ms. Clark discusses how Karen Clark & Company assists insurers in improving their exposure data.

Understanding uncertainty

In this article, Karen Clark comments on the inherent limits of catastrophe models and cautions against overreliance on the models.

Cat model pioneer cautions insurers on over reliance of models

Karen Clark and others share their perspectives on insurers’ use of catastrophe models. Ms. Clark expresses her concern that "model precision can be confused with accuracy.

Shaking up the Models

In this article on new earthquake models, Karen Clark comments on the inherent limitations of catastrophe modeling software.

Cat Modeler Karen Clark on Over-Reliance by Insurers

In this BestDay Audio podcast, Karen Clark discusses why insurers rely too heavily on catastrophe models and often put too much weight on the probable maximum loss (PML).

Cat Modeling Pioneer: Don’t Rely Too Much on Cat Models

Karen Clark comments extensively on the appropriate use of catastrophe models and the perils of selecting a specific point estimate of loss such as the PML.

Perspectives: Why Model Behavior Doesn’t Always Make Sense

In this opinion piece, A.M. Best senior associate editor Meg Green cites Karen Clark, "the mother of catastrophe modeling," and her caution on overreliance on catastrophe models.

Have near-term cat risk models failed?

Karen Clark speaks with Reactions about the findings of the firm’s report on the performance of near term hurricane models and their appropriate role in gauging catastrophe risk.

A Review of the Performance of Near Term Hurricane Models

An abridged version of the Karen Clark & Company report "Near Term Models: How Have They Performed?" is featured in Risk Management’s June 2009 issue, page 22.


Efficacy of Catastrophe Models Assessed

This article details the findings of a report by Karen Clark & Company on the performance of near term hurricane models and quotes Karen Clark on the implications for the insurance industry.

Overshadowed but Active Hurricane Season Was Anticipated by the Industry

In this article on the active 2008 hurricane season, Karen Clark discusses how the insured losses predicted by near term hurricane models compare to actual losses over the past three years.

Get a Hold of Your Property, People

This article discusses how risk managers can move beyond models to better assess their property risk. Karen Clark says that model results should be supplemented by inspection reports and data detailing specific characteristics of the insured property.

Why The Next Big Northeast Hurricane Will Surprise

This article by Karen Clark describes the devastating impact of the 1938 hurricane on New England and projects the losses a similar storm today could incur.

Technology-based Underwriting

In this E-Fusion Conference webinar, Senior Vice President Glen Daraskevich presents on how insurance companies can leverage mobile technology to improve underwriting decision making for the property lines of business.

As part of A.M. Best Company's 2008 E-Fusion Conference, Karen Clark & Company participates in this Q & A podcast on how insurers can better prepare for and deal with catastrophes.

The Hurricane of ’38 Remembered

In this article marking the 70th anniversary of The Great New England Hurricane of 1938, Karen Clark is quoted on the devastation a similar storm today would bring to the region.

Could a Hurricane Katrina or Ike Happen in MA?

In this televised segment that aired during WBZ-TV’s Hurricane Week, Karen Clark speaks with meteorologist Mish Michaels about the likelihood and impact of a severe storm striking Massachusetts.

Birth Mother of CAT Modeling Spins On

Risk & Insurance® announces Karen Clark as a winner of the 2008 Risk Innovator™ Award in the Insurance category for her outstanding integrity and her ability to address risk-related problems through unique, innovative solutions.

GR Top 40: The Most Influential Women

Karen Clark is named the most influential woman in the reinsurance sector for her notable accomplishments in this male-dominated industry.

Modeling rests on data

In this transcript of a Q&A podcast, Karen Clark speaks with Business Insurance about the limitations of catastrophe models, the quality and range of model input data, and the future of the risk assessment industry.

Shore Bets

Over the past twenty years, catastrophe models have become a mainstay of the insurance industry. This article quotes Karen Clark on the appropriate role and application of these models in assessing and managing risk.

Hurricane Preparedness is key to surviving a Katrina

This article details the efforts that Rhode Island is taking to prepare for a major storm and quotes Karen Clark on the devastating impact a hurricane like Katrina would have on the region’s property and infrastructure.

Complacency cited as main hurricane risk in Northeast

Major hurricanes in the Northeastern U.S. are rare but can have a devastating effect on people and property, especially when hurricane warnings are disregarded. Karen Clark is quoted on the property damage a hurricane like the Great Hurricane of 1938 would incur in New England.

Thinking outside the black box

This article by Karen Clark discusses ways that companies can mitigate risk by applying benchmarking analyses that test the credibility of model output.

Nobel Peace Prize Winners Honor Catastrophe Model Pioneer Clark

From the archive: an interview with Karen Clark

In this interview with Insurance Day, Karen Clark offers commentary on how catastrophe risk assessment can be improved by using catastrophe models in conjunction with quality exposure data, a process for checking model output, and other information on losses not covered by the model.

European Insurance Forum Examines Industry Changes

This article covering the Tenth Annual Insurance Forum in Dublin cites Karen Clark’s remarks during her participation in a panel discussion titled “Global Warming—Mitigation or Devastation.

Wild Variations

Karen Clark addresses the inconsistency among results produced by existing catastrophe models and suggests that companies use benchmarking and scenario analysis to bring more transparency to these results.


Catastrophe Modeling Pioneer Clark Advises on Insurers’ Best Practices

This article announces that Karen Clark & Co. will provide reviews of internal catastrophe risk assessment to help companies conform to best practices.

Cat Modeling Pioneer Clark Honored by Reinsurance Industry

This article details Karen Clark’s receipt of The Review Worldwide Reinsurance Awards’ Lifetime Achievement award for her outstanding contributions to the reinsurance industry.

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