Near Term Hurricane Models Performance Update - January 2010
January 19, 2010
A year ago, Karen Clark & Company released a report titled "Near Term Hurricane Models – How Have They Performed?" The purpose of that report and this update is to make more transparent to model users how actual results have compared to the model projections. It is essential that users of catastrophe models understand the key assumptions that are driving the projections that come out of "the black box." It is equally important to periodically compare actual results against predicted results to test model credibility. In this report we will also comment on the Hurricane Frequency Paradox – is Atlantic hurricane frequency trending upwards or are we becoming better at detecting storms?